SICOM Global Rubber Prices Remain Bullish, as SICOM TSR20 Holds Firm Above 220 US Cents/Kg
Medan, May 11, 2026 — Global natural rubber prices continued to show a positive trend at the beginning of this week. Based on market monitoring at 7:00 WIB this morning, the active June 2026 SICOM TSR20 contract on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) stood at 221.3 US cents/kg, edging up by 4.3 cents from the previous trading session.
Meanwhile, the most active September 2026 RSS3 natural rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) was recorded at 17,860 yuan/ton, down by 125 yuan. The mixed movement between the SICOM and SHFE markets indicates that traders are still adjusting their positions following the strong rally seen over the past few weeks.
Over the past week, global rubber prices moved quite aggressively and even broke into new highs:
May 4, 2026: 217.2
May 5, 2026: 217.8
May 6, 2026: 219.6
May 7, 2026: 222.6
May 8, 2026: 220.9
May 11, 2026 (morning): 221.2
The rise toward 222.6 US cents/kg on May 7 marked one of the highest levels seen in recent months. Although prices briefly corrected afterward, they remained firmly above the key psychological area of 220 US cents/kg, indicating that bullish sentiment still dominates the market.
Compared with the early March 2026 level of 203.3 US cents/kg, prices have now risen by around 8.8 percent. Even from the low point of 189.3 US cents/kg on March 20, 2026, prices have surged by more than 16 percent.
Technical Analysis: Uptrend Still Intact
From a technical perspective, price movements continue to form a higher high and higher low structure, which generally signals that the uptrend remains in place.
The 216–218 US cents/kg area has now turned into an important support zone after previously serving as resistance at the end of April. As long as prices remain above this area, the opportunity for further gains remains open.
Meanwhile, the 222–223 US cents/kg range has become the short-term resistance currently being tested by the market. If prices can consistently break through this zone, they may potentially move toward the 225–230 US cents/kg range in the near term.
On the other hand, weakness in the SHFE RSS3 contract suggests that the Chinese market remains relatively cautious following the rapid rally from April through early May.
Fundamental Analysis: ASEAN Supply and Chinese Consumption Remain Key Drivers
ASEAN Supply Has Yet to Fully Recover
Natural rubber supply from major Southeast Asian producers such as Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam is still considered not fully recovered. Weather conditions, the leaf-fall season transition, and plantation production efficiency continue to affect global supply volumes.
As a result, the market has not yet seen a large surplus capable of significantly pressuring prices lower.
In addition, parts of the industry are still facing operational cost pressures, including higher energy, logistics, and labor costs compared with the pre-pandemic period.
Chinese Consumption Continues Supporting the Market
China, as the world’s largest rubber consumer, remains the main supporting factor for global prices. Relatively stable manufacturing and automotive sector activity in China continues to support demand for tire raw materials and other rubber-based products.
Although there are indications that some industries are still adjusting production due to cost pressures and global export conditions, China’s domestic consumption remains strong enough to maintain market balance so far.
The decline in SHFE RSS3 contracts this morning is viewed more as profit-taking and technical adjustment rather than a major fundamental shift.
Energy and Geopolitical Factors Still Matter
The global energy crisis is no longer as dominant a factor as it was during 2022–2024. However, oil prices still maintain an indirect relationship with the natural rubber market.
When oil prices remain relatively high, synthetic rubber production costs also rise, making natural rubber usage more competitive. This condition continues to support global natural rubber prices.
In addition, global geopolitical dynamics — including tensions in several strategic regions and uncertainty in international trade — continue to influence overall commodity market sentiment. Nevertheless, the rubber market is currently being driven more by supply-demand balance than by geopolitics alone.
Market Outlook
Overall, the global natural rubber market remains in a moderate bullish phase. As long as Chinese demand stays stable and ASEAN supply does not experience a major surplus, prices are expected to remain at elevated levels.
Market participants are now closely monitoring:
Economic and manufacturing developments in China
Global oil price movements
Weather conditions in major producing countries
Production developments entering the mid-year tapping season
If support at 220 US cents/kg remains intact, the opportunity for further gains toward the 225 US cents/kg area remains open over the coming weeks.