GAPKINDO Highlights the Threat of El Niño 2026 to Indonesia’s Natural Rubber Industry
Medan, May 17, 2026 — The Indonesian Rubber Association (GAPKINDO) held a webinar titled Climate Dynamics and Its Relationship with National Rubber Production on April 30, 2026, featuring two professional speakers in the fields of rubber and climate science: Dr. Tri Rapani Febbiyanti from the Indonesian Rubber Research Institute and Dr. Dodo Gunawan from the College of Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics (STMKG-BMKG).
In his presentation, Dr. Dodo Gunawan explained that Indonesia is potentially facing the development of an El Niño phenomenon beginning in mid-2026, with a relatively high probability. BMKG forecasts indicate that El Niño conditions may start emerging between May and June 2026 and continue through the second half of the year.
He noted that the probability of El Niño is expected to increase significantly from July through the end of 2026. The condition is projected to reduce rainfall across several regions of Indonesia, particularly Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, parts of Kalimantan, and Sulawesi. The webinar also discussed the popular term “Godzilla El Niño,” which is used to describe the potential for a very strong El Niño event capable of triggering extreme drought conditions and increasing the risk of forest and land fires.
Meanwhile, Dr. Tri Rapani Febbiyanti highlighted that climate change and Pestalotiopsis leaf fall disease have placed considerable pressure on Indonesia’s rubber productivity in recent years. Based on the data presented, rubber productivity has shown a declining trend compared to 2017 levels, particularly during periods affected by climate disturbances and leaf disease outbreaks.
According to her, drought conditions associated with El Niño could reduce latex production by up to 50 percent due to disruptions in the physiological processes of rubber trees. Prolonged drought may also trigger oxidative stress, excessive leaf fall, tapping panel dryness (TPD), and increase plant vulnerability to root diseases.
However, the drier conditions during El Niño are also expected to suppress the development of several leaf diseases such as Pestalotiopsis, Colletotrichum, Oidium heveae, and Corynespora cassiicola due to lower humidity levels.
As part of the mitigation measures, the GAPKINDO webinar also discussed various adaptation strategies aimed at maintaining rubber plantation productivity amid drought threats. Recommended measures included the use of water conservation pits (rorak), irrigation systems, organic mulching and legume cover crops (LCC), mycorrhizal inoculation, biofertilizers, and drought-tolerant rubber clones.
Through this webinar, GAPKINDO hopes that stakeholders in Indonesia’s rubber industry will be better prepared to face climate dynamics in 2026 and implement early adaptation measures to maintain the sustainability of national rubber production.