Bullish Momentum Holds Into Weekend, SICOM-TSR20 Eyes Rebound Toward 235–240 Cents
Medan, June 5, 2026 — Global rubber markets continued to show high volatility during Friday morning trading. After experiencing a correction in the previous session, the SICOM-TSR20 July contract on SGX began to rebound and moved higher again this morning.
Market monitoring data at 08:38 WIB showed SICOM-TSR20 July trading at 230.8 cents/kg, up around 0.4 cents, while the most active RSS3 contract on SHFE stood at 17,895 yuan/ton, still down about 80 yuan.
The rebound in SICOM this morning signals that selling pressure is beginning to ease following the recent wave of profit-taking. Market participants continue to view the broader global natural rubber trend as strongly bullish.
Massive Rally Throughout 2026
Based on year-to-date historical data, SICOM-TSR20 has risen significantly from 181.7 cents in early January to a recent peak of 234.5 cents on June 2, 2026.
That means prices have climbed more than 28% during the first five months of 2026.
The sharp rally reflects ongoing concerns over:
tightening global supply,
declining inventories,
and soaring raw material prices in key producing countries such as Thailand.
Over the past two weeks in particular, bullish momentum accelerated aggressively:
May 28 : 228.3
May 29 : 229.0
June 2 : 234.5
June 3 : 234.4
June 4 : 230.4
June 5 morning : 230.8
The 228–230 area is now considered a key technical support zone.
Why Does the Market Remain Volatile?
Current market movements are being influenced by a combination of external, technical, and fundamental factors.
Global market reports indicated that Japanese rubber futures on the Osaka Exchange recently came under pressure following weaker crude oil prices. Oil prices softened amid growing optimism surrounding Middle East geopolitical developments that could potentially reopen major global energy trade routes.
Weaker oil prices often pressure natural rubber sentiment because synthetic rubber, which is petroleum-based, becomes more competitive.
In addition, several Chinese brokers reported that many tire manufacturers are becoming increasingly cautious in purchasing raw materials after the recent sharp rally in prices.
In other words, the market is currently experiencing a:
“bullish but overbought” phase.
However, downside pressure remains relatively limited because:
China’s tire exports remain strong,
tire factory operating rates stay high,
heavy truck sales in China remain solid,
and social rubber inventories continue to decline.
Fundamentals Still Strongly Support Prices
Recent market reports suggest that overall fundamentals remain supportive.
1. Thailand Supply Remains Tight
Heavy rainfall in Thailand continues to disrupt tapping activities in several producing regions.
At the same time, factories are reportedly competing aggressively for raw materials. There are even reports that trucks previously used to transport cassava are now being diverted to carry rubber.
This highlights the intense scramble for raw materials in the field.
2. China’s Social Inventories Continue to Decline
Data as of May 31 showed:
dark rubber inventories in China fell 2.7%
light rubber inventories declined 0.35%
The market is now entering a “smooth de-stocking phase,” meaning inventories are steadily leaving warehouses.
3. Thailand RSS Prices Reach 9-Year High
LSEG data showed Thailand’s RSS3 prices have climbed to their highest level in nine years.
This condition provides a strong foundation preventing global prices from falling too deeply.
Technical Analysis: Still Has Potential to Test 240 Cents
Technically, the broader SICOM-TSR20 trend remains bullish as long as prices stay above the 228–230 cents support zone.
Key market levels currently being monitored include:
Major support: 228–230
Secondary support: 225
Near resistance: 234–235
Major psychological resistance: 240 cents
This morning’s rebound from the 230 area signals that buyers are starting to re-enter the market.
If support around 228 holds, the market could rebound toward:
235 cents
and potentially test 238–240 cents
during this week’s trading sessions.
However, if selling pressure intensifies again and 228 breaks decisively, the market may enter a consolidation phase toward 223–225 cents before determining its next direction.
African NR Could Reshape Global Trade Flows
One major issue increasingly attracting market attention is the possibility of broader acceptance of African rubber into NR delivery systems.
If implementation expands further, global rubber trade flows could gradually shift because:
supply sources would become more diversified,
Southeast Asia’s dominance could slightly weaken,
and global pricing structures may evolve over the longer term.
Nevertheless, in the short term, the market remains more focused on:
Thailand’s rainy season supply disruptions,
declining inventories,
and elevated global raw material prices.
Outlook
Overall, the global rubber market remains in a strong bullish structure despite continued volatility caused by profit-taking activities.
Unless there is a significant change in supply or inventory conditions, market participants still see room for SICOM-TSR20 to retest the 235–240 cents/kg area in the near term.
Today’s trading direction will be heavily influenced by:
crude oil price movements,
Chinese market sentiment,
and whether the 228–230 cents support zone can withstand short-term selling pressure.