Rubber Prices Come Under Pressure Again! TSR20 Plunges 5.6 Points as Market Begins Testing the 230s

Medan, September 14, 2026 — The natural rubber market came under renewed pressure in Monday’s trading (Sept. 14, 2026). As of 1:20 p.m. WIB, the SICOM-TSR20 October contract stood at 237.6, down 5.6 points from Friday’s settlement of 243.2.

Pressure was also visible in China’s rubber futures market. The RU (RSS3) SHFE January 2027 contract, the most active contract, stood at 18,935 yuan per ton, down 405 points, or approximately 2.09 percent.

The simultaneous declines in Singapore and Shanghai are drawing traders’ attention because they indicate that selling pressure is not limited to a single exchange.

The pressure was also reflected in rubber-sector shares in China. Hainan Rubber came under renewed pressure after suffering sharp declines in several previous trading sessions.

From Rally to Correction

Today’s correction did not come out of nowhere. TSR20 prices have experienced a prolonged rise since the beginning of the year.

Based on the trading data being monitored, TSR20 stood at 181.7 on January 2, 2026. Prices then moved higher gradually and reached 249.9 on September 9.

This means that before the latest correction, TSR20 had risen approximately 37.5 percent from the beginning of the year to that peak.

Such a rapid increase naturally created room for market participants to take profits.

After touching 249.9 on September 9, the price fell to 246 on September 10 and declined again to 243.2 on Friday (Sept. 11). By Monday afternoon, the decline had continued to 237.6.

From the September 9 peak of 249.9 to 237.6 this afternoon, TSR20 has therefore corrected by approximately 4.9 percent.

Nevertheless, the current price remains around 30.8 percent above its level at the beginning of the year. Therefore, the decline over the past few sessions is not yet sufficient to conclude that the broader rubber price trend has turned bearish.

Weekly Review: Gains Nearly Erased

The past week’s movement shows a clear change in sentiment.

On September 7, TSR20 stood at 241.9. A day later, the price jumped to 249 and rose again to 249.9 on September 9.

After reaching that level, however, the market reversed direction.

On September 10, the price fell to 246 and on September 11 it declined again to 243.2.

On a weekly basis through Friday, the price was still up approximately 0.54 percent compared with September 7.

However, using the provisional price of 237.6 this Monday afternoon, that weekly gain has turned into a decline of approximately 1.8 percent.

This change shows that the previously strong upward momentum is beginning to lose steam.

Why Are Rubber Prices Correcting?

One of the main factors is profit-taking after the substantial price increase.

When a commodity price rises rapidly, some traders and investors typically begin securing their profits. Selling pressure can become stronger if new buyers start waiting for lower prices.

The second factor is concern over whether demand can absorb high prices.

Natural rubber is primarily used for industrial purposes, particularly vehicle tires. When raw-material prices rise sharply, tire manufacturers and downstream industries generally become more cautious about purchases.

China is a particular focus because it is one of the world’s largest natural-rubber consumers. The weakening of the RU contract on SHFE at the same time as the decline in TSR20 suggests that the Chinese market is also facing pressure.

The third factor is supply and weather developments in producing countries.

Rubber is an agricultural commodity that is highly influenced by weather conditions. Excessive rainfall can disrupt tapping activities, while more favorable weather can increase supplies reaching the market.

The rubber market is therefore currently facing two opposing forces: supply is not always abundant on one side, while demand is becoming more selective on the other.

Global Fundamentals Remain a Support

Despite the price correction, the fundamentals of natural rubber have not undergone a drastic deterioration.

Data from the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) indicate that global natural-rubber production continues to face pressure during certain periods, while global consumption is still expected to grow.

ANRPC estimates global natural-rubber consumption in 2026 at around 15.356 million tons, up approximately 0.4 percent. Growth continues to be supported mainly by demand from the tire and automotive industries.

In simple terms, the world still needs large quantities of rubber.

The issue is that continued demand growth does not mean prices have to rise every day. After a major rally, the market still needs a correction or consolidation period to find a new balance.

On the supply side, rubber production is also seasonal. Weather conditions in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and other producing countries can cause supplies reaching the market to fluctuate.

This is why rubber fundamentals at present are best described as still relatively supportive, but not strong enough to prevent a short-term correction.

Physical Rubber Prices Remain High

Physical rubber prices in Thailand also indicate that the commodity remains at relatively high levels.

Thailand’s STR20 price on September 11 was around 83 baht/kg, while RSS was around 92 baht/kg.

This shows that the correction in the futures market does not necessarily mean physical rubber prices in producing countries are falling by the same magnitude.

This distinction is important for farmers and rubber-industry participants because prices received at the farm level are not determined solely by a single futures contract. They are also influenced by rubber type, quality, exchange rates, processing costs, factory demand and local market conditions.

Hainan Rubber Also Under Pressure

Pressure in the rubber market was also reflected in Hainan Rubber, one of China’s major natural-rubber companies.

The stock had previously risen sharply before reversing lower.

Data circulating in the market indicate that Hainan Rubber shares fell around 5 percent in Monday’s trading. The stock had also come under substantial pressure in the previous session.

This indicates that Chinese equity investors are also taking profits after the sharp rise in the stock price.

Second-quarter ownership data show that one investment fund held Hainan Rubber as one of its major portfolio positions, with approximately 318,900 shares, equivalent to around 4 percent of its net asset value.

With the stock declining today, the position has naturally also suffered a decline in value.

However, Hainan Rubber’s share price should not be used as the sole benchmark for determining the direction of global rubber prices because the stock is also influenced by China’s broader equity market, company valuation, investor sentiment and corporate performance.

Technical Analysis: 234–235 Becomes the First Line of Defense

From a technical perspective, today’s correction is entering an area that deserves attention.

After failing to hold the 249–250 area, prices subsequently fell through 246 and 243.

With the provisional price at 237.6, the 234–235 area becomes the nearest support zone to watch.

If buyers can defend this area, the possibility of a technical rebound remains open.

However, if 234–235 is broken amid strong selling pressure, the price could move toward 232–233.

Below that lies a more important area around 228–230.

The 228–230 area is important because it is around the trading zone seen in late August and early September. If prices reach this zone, the correction would be significant and much of the early-September gain would have been erased.

Estimated Price Movement Today

Disclaimer: This technical estimate is only an assessment based on price patterns and available data. It is not a certainty regarding market direction and is not a trading recommendation. Actual movements may differ due to market sentiment, trading volume, exchange rates, weather and fundamental news.

With the price at 237.6 as of 1:20 p.m. WIB, the scenarios to watch through the close are:

Main scenario:
Price moves within 234–238.

If selling pressure increases:
Price could test 232–234.

If the correction becomes more extreme:
The 228–230 area could become the next target.

Conversely, if buyers can push the price back above 240–243, short-term selling pressure would begin to ease.

The 243 level in particular is important because it was previously an area that held before the price moved higher toward 249.9.

Healthy Correction or the Start of a Deeper Decline?

For now, this correction is more appropriately described as a correction following a prolonged rally, rather than evidence that rubber fundamentals have turned negative.

TSR20 remains well above its level at the beginning of the year. Global consumption is also still expected to grow, while natural-rubber production continues to face seasonal and weather-related factors.

But the market is now facing an important question: How high can prices remain before industrial buyers begin reducing purchases?

The answer to that question will determine whether the correction stops around 234–230 or develops into a longer decline.

For rubber-industry participants in Indonesia, today’s movements in SICOM TSR20 and SHFE are particularly important. Both markets are down more than 2 percent this afternoon, indicating that the current pressure is relatively broad.

However, it would also be premature to interpret today’s decline as the beginning of a collapse in rubber prices.

The key for the next phase of trading is TSR20’s ability to hold the 234–235 area.

If it holds, the market still has a chance to consolidate and rebound.

If it breaks, attention will shift toward 232–230, with 228–229 becoming a zone to watch if selling pressure intensifies.

In other words, 237.6 is currently a crossroads: the market is determining whether the correction will stop here or whether it needs to search for a lower base before buyers return.