Rubber Prices Rebound This Afternoon, SICOM-TSR20 Rises to 236.8 Cents — Profit-Taking Begins to Ease, but Is Not Yet Over
Medan, September 16, 2026 — Global rubber prices began showing resistance to selling pressure this afternoon. After coming under fairly strong pressure over the past several sessions, the SICOM-TSR20 October contract was trading at 236.8 US cents per kilogram at around 12:00 p.m. WIB, up 0.8 cents, or approximately 0.34%, from the previous level.
The increase signals an early return of buying interest after several consecutive sessions of declines. However, the relatively modest rebound indicates that the market has not yet fully escaped profit-taking pressure. In other words, buyers are beginning to return, but not strongly enough to confirm that the correction phase has ended.
This move is significant because SICOM-TSR20 was still under pressure the previous day. On September 15, the October contract was around 234.8 cents/kg, after falling from 243.2 cents on September 11 to 238.3 cents on September 14. The correction has taken prices further away from the year-to-date high of 249.9 cents/kg on September 9.
Rebound Is Emerging, but Has Not Yet Become a Trend Reversal
The rise to 236.8 cents/kg this afternoon indicates that selling pressure is beginning to meet resistance. After prices fell relatively quickly from the 249–250 cent area, some market participants have begun viewing lower levels as an opportunity to buy back.
However, the size of the rebound remains important. An increase of 0.8 cents is not yet large enough to conclude that the market has entered a new upward phase.
Reuters reported that rubber contracts in several Asian markets were still facing pressure due to weakening tire demand in China. OSE and SHFE contracts also declined, while natural rubber entered a technical correction after failing to break back above previous highs.
Therefore, the SICOM-TSR20 rebound this afternoon is more appropriately viewed as an attempted recovery following the correction, rather than confirmation of a full directional reversal.
If prices can hold above the 236–237 cent area and subsequently move through 238–240 cents, the recovery signal would become stronger. Conversely, if the rebound fails and prices fall back below 235–236 cents, selling pressure could resume.
China Remains the Weak Point on the Demand Side
One of the main factors limiting rubber prices is the condition of demand in China, the world's largest rubber-consuming market.
Recent data show that China's industrial activity is still growing. August industrial production increased 5.2% year-on-year, up from 4.5% in July. However, this has not yet translated into a strong recovery in overall demand, as domestic consumption remains under pressure and the property sector has yet to fully recover.
Conditions in the tire industry are also not particularly supportive. Reuters reported that operating rates among Chinese tire manufacturers have weakened as profit margins have come under pressure. Some manufacturers are also expected to reduce activity ahead of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays.
For the rubber market, this is important because demand from the tire industry is one of the main determinants of prices. When tire factories reduce production or raw-material purchases, the room for rubber prices to rise becomes more limited.
Rubber Fundamentals Are Not Entirely Bearish
Although Chinese demand is a headwind, overall rubber fundamentals do not yet indicate an extreme oversupply situation.
The latest report from the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) estimates global natural rubber production in 2026 at approximately 15.279 million tonnes, up 2.1% from 2025. Meanwhile, global consumption is projected at 15.356 million tonnes, slightly higher than production.
In simple terms, global demand for natural rubber is still expected to be slightly greater than projected production. This provides a fundamental base that could help limit a deeper decline in prices.
ANRPC also reported that natural rubber consumption in July reached approximately 1.297 million tonnes, up 0.8% year-on-year. China accounted for around 603,100 tonnes, while India accounted for approximately 116,000 tonnes. Demand continues to be supported by the tire industry and the electric-vehicle sector.
However, these figures describe the global fundamental picture and do not mean prices will rise every day. In the short term, market sentiment, profit-taking, Chinese tire-industry conditions, exchange rates and macroeconomic factors can still cause prices to move contrary to longer-term fundamentals.
Southeast Asian Supply Remains a Price Support Factor
On the supply side, weather conditions remain an important factor.
The rainy season in several major Southeast Asian producing countries can disrupt tapping activity and delay the flow of raw materials to processing factories. This can prevent physical supply from increasing immediately even as production seasonally moves into a higher-output period.
ANRPC expects global production to increase in 2026, particularly in Thailand, China, India and Malaysia. However, production in Indonesia and Vietnam is projected to decline.
Thus, the rubber market is currently facing two opposing forces. Supply conditions and weather risks provide support for prices, while weaker Chinese demand limits the upside.
This is one reason prices may continue to move within a relatively wide range in the short term.
Oil Prices Remain a Supporting Factor
Oil prices are also an important factor because natural rubber competes with synthetic rubber, which is produced using oil-based feedstocks.
In the previous session, higher oil prices helped limit pressure on rubber. Reuters reported that oil prices had risen nearly 2% amid concerns over supply disruptions and geopolitical risks. This provided support for synthetic rubber prices and, indirectly, for natural rubber.
However, the influence of oil is not always dominant. If Chinese tire demand continues to weaken, higher oil prices alone may not be enough to bring rubber prices back to their early-September highs.
For now, the market is therefore paying close attention to the combination of oil prices, Chinese conditions and developments in Southeast Asian rubber supply.
SICOM-TSR20: Can the Rebound Continue?
Based on the year-to-date price data available, SICOM-TSR20 has recorded a very strong increase since the beginning of the year.
The price stood at 181.7 cents/kg on January 2, then climbed steadily to reach 249.9 cents/kg on September 9. This represents an increase of approximately 37.5% from the beginning of the year to that peak.
After reaching the peak, the market entered a correction phase:
September 9: 249.9
September 10: 246.0
September 11: 243.2
September 14: 238.3
September 15: 236.0
September 16 afternoon: 236.8
The data show that the market has undergone a correction of approximately 13.1 cents, or 5.2%, from the September 9 peak, based on this afternoon's 236.8-cent level.
In other words, the rebound has begun to emerge, but it has not yet erased the momentum damage caused by the past several sessions of selling.
Estimated SICOM-TSR20 Levels for Today
Technically, with the caveat that this is only an estimate and not a certainty regarding market direction, the 236–238 cents/kg area is important in determining whether this afternoon's rebound can develop into a stronger recovery.
If prices can hold above 236 cents and break through 238 cents, the market could test:
240–243 cents/kg
The 243-cent area is important because it was previously one of the levels that held before selling pressure intensified.
If 243 cents can be cleared with sufficient momentum, the next potential recovery area would be:
246–249 cents/kg
However, reaching that area would require stronger buying momentum and more supportive fundamentals.
Conversely, if the rebound fails and prices fall back below 235–236 cents, selling pressure could push SICOM-TSR20 toward:
232–234 cents/kg
If selling pressure intensifies and that area fails to hold, 228–230 cents/kg would be the next zone to watch.
Simple Scenarios for Today
Rebound continues:
236–238 → 240–243 cents
Rebound strengthens:
243 → 246–249 cents
Rebound fails:
235–236 → 232–234 cents
Correction deepens:
232–234 → 228–230 cents
These levels are technical areas, not guaranteed price targets.
Has Profit-Taking Ended?
For now, the answer cannot be considered yes.
There are indications that profit-taking is beginning to meet resistance because prices have rebounded from the previous level. However, an increase of 0.8 cents remains relatively small compared with the declines seen over the previous several sessions.
The market would need to show a more convincing change if SICOM-TSR20 can move back above 238–240 cents and hold that area.
Conversely, if prices fall back below 235–236 cents, this would indicate that sellers still have the upper hand and that this afternoon's rebound may only be a technical bounce, or temporary recovery.
Conclusion
Rubber prices are beginning to rebound this afternoon, with the SICOM-TSR20 October contract rising to 236.8 cents/kg. The move indicates that selling pressure is beginning to ease following the sharp correction from the 249.9-cent/kg peak on September 9.
However, the market has not yet fully exited the correction phase. Weak Chinese tire demand remains the main obstacle, while supply conditions and weather risks in producing countries continue to provide support.
Fundamentally, the rubber market remains relatively balanced. ANRPC projections indicate that global consumption in 2026 will be slightly higher than production, but demand growth is not strong enough to eliminate the short-term pressure coming from China.
Therefore, 236–238 cents is an important area to watch today. The ability of prices to break through 240–243 cents would provide a more positive signal for a continued rebound. Conversely, a return below 235–236 cents would leave the risk of a test of 232–234 cents open.
For now, SICOM-TSR20 is more appropriately viewed as an early rebound following profit-taking, rather than confirmation that the upward trend has fully returned.
Disclaimer: The technical analysis and price levels in this article are estimates based on price data available through approximately 12:00 p.m. WIB on September 16, 2026. Actual price movements may differ due to changes in market sentiment, Chinese demand, weather conditions in producing countries, oil prices, exchange rates, monetary policy and geopolitical developments.