Rubber Prices Rebound for Second Straight Day, TSR20 Nears 241 Cents — Can It Break 250?
Medan, September 17, 2026 — Rubber prices are showing renewed strength in midday trading today. After coming under fairly sharp pressure last week, SICOM-TSR20 extended its rebound for a second consecutive day, while Shanghai rubber contracts also moved higher. The situation has once again drawn market attention to the possibility of TSR20 testing the 250 US cents/kg level.
Based on monitoring at 12:02 p.m. WIB, the SICOM-TSR20 contract stood at 240.8 US cents/kg, up 2 cents. Meanwhile, the most active RSS3 (RU) January 2027 contract on the SHFE stood at 19,095 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan.
The movement indicates that the selling pressure that previously dominated the market has begun to ease. However, the current increase should still be viewed as a price recovery phase, rather than automatically signaling that the short-term uptrend has fully returned.
Two Days of Rebound, Profit-Taking Pressure Begins to Ease
SICOM-TSR20 price movements show that the contract fell from 249.9 cents on September 9 to 236.0 cents on September 15. The correction was relatively deep after prices had previously approached the 250-cent level.
On September 16, prices rebounded to 238.8 cents, and by 12:02 p.m. WIB on September 17, they had reached 240.8 cents.
As a result, prices have recovered by around 4.8 cents, or approximately 2%, over the past two sessions from the September 15 close.
The rebound is notable because it came after a relatively sharp correction. This suggests that the profit-taking activity that had previously pressured prices is beginning to lose strength.
However, the rebound cannot yet be considered fully secure. Prices still need to overcome the 243–245-cent area. The ability to break through and hold above this zone will be an important indicator of whether the recovery can continue toward 250 cents.
Thailand Becomes One of the Rebound Catalysts
One of the key catalysts currently comes from the supply side. Weather conditions in Thailand are drawing market attention, as the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding during September 17–21 could disrupt rubber tapping, collection, and transportation activities.
For the rubber market, weather disruptions during an active production period can affect the smooth flow of supply. This provides support for prices as the market begins to factor in the possibility that physical supply may not arrive as quickly as previously expected.
Thai rubber raw material prices also remain at relatively high levels. This indicates that pressure from production costs has not fully eased and could serve as one of the supporting factors for rubber prices in the regional market.
China Inventories Continue to Provide Support
Another factor that remains closely watched is the development of inventories in China.
As of September 13, natural rubber inventories in Qingdao, covering general trade and bonded stocks, stood at around 603,200 tons, down approximately 15,800 tons or 2.56% from the previous period. Bonded inventories declined by around 5.21%.
Futures rubber inventories on the Shanghai exchange are also showing a declining trend. This indicates that available inventories in one of the world's largest rubber-consuming centers continue to shrink.
China is the world's largest rubber consumer. Therefore, inventory developments in the country remain an important indicator for assessing the balance between supply and industrial demand.
ANRPC: Market Still Facing a Deficit
From a global fundamental perspective, market conditions continue to provide some support for prices.
However, there is an important update to the ANRPC figures. The widely circulated estimate of a deficit of around 280,000 tons came from an earlier projection.
In its official July 2026 report, ANRPC projected global natural rubber production in 2026 at around 15.279 million tons, while consumption was projected at approximately 15.356 million tons.
Based on these projections, the global market would still face a deficit of around 77,000 tons.
Although this deficit is significantly smaller than the widely cited 280,000-ton figure, the fundamental direction remains important: global consumption is still projected to exceed production.
Rubber demand continues to be supported primarily by the tire and automotive industries. China, India, Malaysia, and several other consuming countries remain important components of global demand.
Is the Rebound Still Strong?
For today's midday trading session, the indications remain relatively positive. Prices have not only held above yesterday's close but have also moved from 238.8 cents on September 16 to 240.8 cents on September 17 at 12:02 p.m. WIB.
This means the rebound is still underway, with prices once again approaching the 241-cent area.
However, one factor that needs to be considered is the relatively low liquidity of the October SICOM-TSR20 contract being monitored. The observed volume was around 66 contracts.
Therefore, the October contract should not be interpreted in isolation. Confirmation from other SICOM contracts, developments in SHFE, physical rubber prices in Southeast Asia, and trading volume would provide a better basis for assessing whether the rebound has further strength.
Meanwhile, the SHFE January 2027 RSS3 contract remained at 19,095 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan, indicating that the strengthening trend is also visible in the Shanghai market.
The combination suggests that the current rebound has several supporting factors at the same time: the previous correction was relatively deep, profit-taking pressure is beginning to ease, Chinese inventories are declining, and concerns over Thailand's supply are increasing.
The Path Toward 250 Cents Is Opening Up
From a technical perspective, the 250-cent/kg area remains an important resistance level.
SICOM-TSR20 previously reached 249.9 cents on September 9, before correcting to 236 cents on September 15.
With prices now at 240.8 cents, the market needs an increase of approximately 9.1 cents, or around 3.8%, to retest the 250 level.
If the rebound manages to break through 243–245 cents with increasingly strong buying momentum, the possibility of moving toward 248–250 cents would become more open.
Conversely, if prices fail to break through 243–245 cents and fall back below 238 cents, the rebound could lose momentum, potentially bringing the market back toward the 235–236-cent area.
SICOM-TSR20 Levels to Watch Today
From a purely technical perspective, with the caveat that this analysis may be incorrect and does not guarantee future price movements:
Support: 238–236
Next support: 232–233
Initial resistance: 243–245
Strong resistance: 248–250
Rebound target: 250 cents/kg
For trading on September 17, the 240–243-cent area is an important zone to watch during the remainder of the session.
If prices can hold above 240 cents and subsequently break through 243–245 cents, the possibility of moving toward 248–250 cents would increase.
Conversely, if prices fall back below 238 cents, the market needs to be alert to the possibility that the rebound is losing momentum.
Fundamentals Support Prices, But the Market Is Not Risk-Free
Overall, current conditions show a combination of factors that are relatively supportive of rubber prices. Chinese inventories are declining, weather conditions in Thailand could disrupt supply, raw material prices remain relatively high, and ANRPC projections still indicate that consumption will exceed production.
These factors provide a fundamental basis for prices to remain supported following the correction.
At the same time, the previous rally toward 250 cents generated significant profit-taking activity. Therefore, the journey toward 250 is unlikely to be a straight line. The market may still experience short-term corrections as prices approach resistance levels.
Year-to-date data show that SICOM-TSR20 rose from around 218 cents in early August to 249.9 cents in early September, before correcting to 236 cents.
With the rebound now bringing prices back to 240.8 cents, the market is attempting to rebuild momentum following that correction.
In conclusion, the second consecutive day of rebound indicates that profit-taking pressure is beginning to ease. Short-term fundamentals are also providing renewed support, particularly from potential disruptions to Thailand's supply and declining Chinese inventories. As long as the 238–236-cent area is not broken to the downside, the possibility of retesting 245 cents and then 250 cents remains open.
However, 250 cents remains an important resistance level. Before reaching that level, the market needs to overcome 243–245 cents and demonstrate that buying momentum remains sufficiently strong.
Disclaimer: The technical analysis and projected price levels above are based on data available up to approximately 12:02 p.m. WIB and do not constitute a guarantee of future price movements. The rubber market is highly influenced by weather, exchange rates, industrial demand, inventories, global economic conditions, and market sentiment, meaning prices may move beyond the projected levels.