Rubber Prices Surge, SICOM Tops 252 Cents as Supply Tightens and El Niño Risk Grows
Medan, September 24, 2026 — Natural rubber prices continued their sharp recovery on Thursday, extending the gains recorded in the previous session. The latest rise reflects growing concerns over global supply, while weather risks associated with El Niño are receiving increasing attention from the market.
At 9:13 a.m. WIB, the October SICOM-TSR20 contract stood at 252.3 US cents per kilogram, up 3.5 cents from the previous level. Meanwhile, the most-active January 2027 RSS3 contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) stood at 19,425 yuan per tonne, up 305 yuan.
The latest advance followed a strong gain on Wednesday. SICOM-TSR20 stood at 241.7 cents/kg on September 22 before jumping to 249.5 cents/kg on September 23. Over the past two sessions, the benchmark has therefore risen by about 10.6 cents/kg, or 4.4%. Compared with the September 18 level of 236.8 cents/kg, the increase has reached approximately 6.5%.
Recovery Supported by More Than Technical Factors
The latest price increase is being supported by a combination of factors. In the Asian physical market, rubber supplies continue to face weather disruptions, while raw-material costs remain elevated.
In Thailand, rainfall has disrupted tapping activity in several producing areas, preventing raw-material supplies from flowing fully in line with the seasonal pattern.
Thailand's rubber raw-material price was around 73.8 baht per kilogram on September 21, equivalent to approximately Rp39,000–Rp40,000 per kilogram (100% DRC), based on an indicative exchange rate of around Rp530–Rp540 per baht.
The elevated raw-material price is important because it limits the ability of producers and exporters to offer rubber at lower prices. At the same time, relatively high international prices compared with China's domestic market have reduced import margins.
As a result, new supplies have not been flowing aggressively into the Chinese market.
China’s Rubber Imports Fall as Inventories Also Decline
China's latest trade data show that natural rubber imports reached around 486,000 tonnes in August, down 6.7% year on year and among the lowest levels recorded for August in recent years.
Cumulative natural rubber imports from January through August reached approximately 4.08 million tonnes, down about 1% from the same period last year.
A decline in imports would normally be interpreted as a sign of weaker demand. However, the current situation has another side: supplies entering China have also declined, while rubber inventories at major trading hubs continue to fall.
Rubber inventories in the Qingdao area fell again in the week through September 18, declining by approximately 17,400 tonnes, including reductions in both bonded-zone and general-trade warehouses.
This has made physical rubber availability an increasingly important issue for the market. In other words, the market is not only watching how much rubber is being demanded, but also how easily physical supplies can be obtained.
El Niño Risk Gains Attention Ahead of the Fourth Quarter
Another factor increasingly attracting market attention is the development of El Niño.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) expects the El Niño event currently developing to strengthen significantly in the coming months and potentially persist into early 2027.
The development is important for the rubber market because Southeast Asia accounts for a large share of global natural rubber production. Changes in rainfall and temperature patterns can affect tapping activity and production.
Indonesia is also facing changes in seasonal patterns. The latest forecasts indicate that the rainy season in several parts of Indonesia could begin later than usual.
However, El Niño should not yet be treated as a certainty that global rubber production will decline. Its impact will depend on the affected regions, weather intensity and the duration of the disruption.
For now, El Niño is better viewed as an emerging supply risk that the market is increasingly pricing into future expectations.
Supply Becomes the Main Focus
As the fourth quarter approaches, rubber production in several major producing countries is seasonally expected to enter a higher-output period. Normally, this would bring additional supplies to the market.
This year, however, several factors are making the market less confident that new supplies will flow smoothly.
Rainfall in several producing areas has disrupted tapping activity. At the same time, high raw-material prices are keeping production costs elevated. When raw-material prices remain high while international price structures limit import margins, buyers have less incentive to aggressively increase purchases.
If these conditions coincide with increasing El Niño-related weather risks, the market could face tighter supply conditions toward the end of 2026.
Recovery Strengthens, but Profit-Taking Risk Is Rising
From a technical perspective, the current SICOM-TSR20 recovery can be considered stronger than the previous rebound.
The price stood at 236.8 cents/kg on September 18, rose to 241.7 cents on September 22, jumped to 249.5 cents on September 23, and reached 252.3 cents/kg this morning.
That means the benchmark has gained approximately 4.4% over the past two sessions.
Importantly, the price has also moved back above the 249–250 cents/kg area, which previously acted as a high in early September. This indicates that buying pressure remains significant.
However, the rapid pace of the increase also means the risk of profit-taking is becoming greater.
Profit-taking does not necessarily indicate that the upward trend has ended. But after a gain of more than 10 cents in just two sessions, the market will need to test whether buyers remain willing to chase prices at higher levels.
255 Cents Becomes the Next Test
Technically, the 250–251 cents/kg area has now become an important level.
If prices can hold above this zone, the recovery still has room to extend. The nearest target to watch is around 255 cents/kg.
If 255 cents is broken while buying momentum remains strong, attention could shift toward 258–260 cents/kg, which is also an important psychological zone.
Conversely, if prices fail to hold above 250 cents and profit-taking emerges, the market could retest the 247–249 cents/kg area.
For Thursday's session, based on the morning price structure and recent movements, the 252–255 cents/kg area is important to watch, while 258–260 cents/kg remains a possible next scenario if upward momentum stays intact.
Technical note: This projection is based on the available price data and does not represent a certainty about future price direction or a trading recommendation. Commodity prices can change rapidly in response to weather, exchange rates, Chinese policies, global market conditions, industrial demand and physical supply developments.
Fundamentals Continue to Provide Support
Fundamentally, the rubber market is currently receiving support from several factors operating simultaneously.
Raw-material supplies in several producing countries continue to face weather disruptions. Raw-material prices remain elevated. China's rubber imports have declined, but inventories at major trading hubs are also falling. Meanwhile, the risk of El Niño adds another layer of uncertainty to supply prospects for the fourth quarter and early 2027.
On the demand side, China's automotive and tire industries remain important factors to watch. Policies supporting the automotive sector could also help maintain relatively healthy rubber consumption.
Developments in global trade relations and geopolitics are also influencing market sentiment. Any developments that improve the outlook for global trade and economic activity could provide additional support for commodities, including rubber.
Therefore, the current rise in rubber prices is not simply a technical move. The market is also receiving fundamental support from supply concerns and tighter physical availability, although the risk of a correction remains after the rapid price increase.
Rubber Market Enters a Critical Phase
The movement of SICOM-TSR20 over the past two sessions represents a significant change in market momentum. After falling toward 236–238 cents/kg in mid-September, the benchmark has now returned above 250 cents/kg.
The market's next focus will be whether prices can sustain the 250 cents/kg level.
If that level holds, a move toward 255 cents/kg and then 258–260 cents/kg remains technically possible. Conversely, if profit-taking pushes prices back below 250 cents/kg, the market could enter a consolidation phase first.
What is clear is that, as September draws to a close, supply has once again become the central theme in the rubber market. Weather conditions, the development of El Niño, production in major producing countries, China's import flows and changes in physical inventories will be key factors determining whether the current price recovery can continue or whether the market needs to pause first.
For Indonesia's rubber industry, SICOM-TSR20 remains an important international benchmark to monitor, as movements in global rubber prices can ultimately influence raw-material and processed-rubber prices across the regional market.