Global Rubber Market Heats Up as SICOM-TSR20 Surges Past 255 Cents: Falling Stocks and Thai Rain Strengthen Supply Concerns
Medan, September 25, 2026 — Natural rubber prices continued to strengthen on Friday, with SICOM-TSR20 extending its gains for a second consecutive day, signaling that buying pressure remains firm even as prices reach their highest levels in years.
As of 2:26 p.m. WIB, the October SICOM-TSR20 contract stood at 255.5 US cents per kilogram, up 1.5 cents, or around 0.59%.
The increase followed Thursday's (September 24) advance, when SICOM-TSR20 closed at around 254 cents/kg. A day earlier, on September 23, the price stood at 249.5 cents/kg.
Over the past two sessions, the benchmark has gained approximately 6 cents/kg, or 2.4%. Compared with 236.8 cents/kg on September 18, SICOM-TSR20 has risen approximately 7.9% in one week.
Falling Stocks Provide Fresh Support
One of the main factors currently supporting rubber prices is the increasingly tight inventory situation in China.
According to a report by Huatai Futures, China's social natural rubber inventory fell by 17,841 tonnes to 585,363 tonnes. Natural rubber inventories at Qingdao also declined by around 17,183 tonnes to 1.109 million tonnes.
The inventory decline has occurred alongside relatively firm raw-material prices in major Asian producing countries, making the market increasingly sensitive to supply disruptions.
China's import data also points to tighter availability. Natural rubber imports in August fell 6.7% year on year to 486,000 tonnes, the lowest August level in six years.
With imports declining while inventories continue to fall, China's physical market is providing additional support to rubber prices.
Thai Rain Continues to Disrupt Supply
Weather has once again become a major focus for the market.
Heavy rainfall in parts of Thailand continues to disrupt rubber tapping activities. Thailand's Meteorological Department has warned of heavy to very heavy rainfall and flash-flood risks through September 27.
For the rubber industry, persistent rain can directly reduce the amount of latex collected by farmers. When tapping is disrupted, the flow of raw material to processing plants slows, keeping raw-material prices relatively firm.
This is reflected in Thai raw-material prices, which remain strong. Huatai Futures reported increases in several Thai raw-material benchmarks.
The market is also continuing to monitor weather risks associated with El Niño, which could affect production in several major producing regions.
Global Production Is Rising, but Supply Is Not Yet Feeling Loose
On an annual basis, global rubber production is actually expected to increase.
The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) estimates that global natural rubber production will rise 2.1% to 15.279 million tonnes in 2026. Global consumption is expected to increase 0.4% to 15.356 million tonnes.
This means projected global consumption remains slightly above production, another factor preventing the market from becoming comfortably oversupplied.
However, annual production figures do not necessarily mean that sufficient physical supply is available at all times. Weather disruptions, logistics and declining inventories can create short-term tightness.
That is precisely the situation currently drawing market attention.
Demand Has Yet to Match the Strength of Supply-Side Factors
On the demand side, conditions remain less supportive.
Chinese tire-factory operating rates have declined ahead of the country's upcoming holiday period. Huatai Futures reported operating rates of around 61.52% for all-steel tires and 65.17% for semi-steel tires.
Some factories are also conducting maintenance and reducing production, limiting the potential for a sharp increase in short-term raw-material purchases.
China's domestic passenger-vehicle market has also faced pressure. However, vehicle exports—particularly new-energy vehicles—remain strong.
Meanwhile, China's tire exports during January–August continued to increase in volume. This indicates that global demand for tires remains present, although manufacturers are facing cost pressures that limit their ability to fully absorb higher raw-material prices.
Rebound Remains Strong, but the Pace Is Starting to Slow
From a technical perspective, the SICOM-TSR20 rebound remains strong.
The benchmark has climbed from 236.8 cents/kg on September 18 to 255.5 cents/kg on September 25, representing an increase of approximately 7.9%.
However, after such a rapid rise, the market is entering a phase that requires closer attention.
On September 23, the price rose from 241.7 to 249.5 cents/kg. It then advanced to around 254 cents/kg on September 24. By 2:26 p.m. WIB on Friday, it had reached 255.5 cents/kg.
In other words, the price is still rising, but the size of each additional gain is becoming smaller.
This is not yet enough to conclude that the rebound is weakening. As long as prices remain above the 250–254 cents/kg area, the upward structure remains intact.
However, the faster prices rise within a short period, the greater the potential for profit-taking.
For now, the more accurate description is: the rebound remains strong, but the risk of profit-taking is increasing.
255–260 Cents Becomes a Key Zone
From a technical perspective, the 255–260 cents/kg area has become an important zone.
With prices already around 255.5 cents/kg, a sustained move through 257–260 cents could open the way toward 262–265 cents/kg.
Conversely, if profit-taking intensifies and prices fall back below 254 cents, attention would shift toward 252 cents, followed by the psychological support level of 250 cents/kg.
SICOM-TSR20 Outlook for Today
Technical scenarios, not a price certainty:
Price at 2:26 p.m. WIB: 255.5 cents/kg
Support: 252–254
Psychological support: 250
Resistance: 257–260
Next resistance: 262–265
If it holds above 255: potential test of 257–260
If it breaks above 260: potential move toward 262–265
If it falls below 252: risk of a correction toward 250
For today's session, from a technical perspective, the 257–260 cents/kg area remains a realistic upside target to test, while 250–252 cents/kg is the key area to watch if profit-taking emerges.
The Rally Is Now Being Tested by Supply and Profit-Taking
The current SICOM-TSR20 rally has clear fundamental support: China and Qingdao inventories continue to decline, China's imports have weakened, Asian raw-material prices remain firm, and rainfall continues to disrupt tapping operations in Thailand.
At the same time, the market faces several constraints. Global production is expected to increase, Chinese tire-factory operating rates have declined ahead of the holiday period, and short-term demand has yet to show an increase comparable to the rise in prices.
The rubber market is therefore entering an important phase.
If supply disruptions persist and inventories continue to decline, prices have fundamental support to remain at elevated levels. But if weather conditions improve and supply flows normalize while demand remains subdued, the potential for profit-taking will increase.
For now, the SICOM-TSR20 rebound remains strong. The 255.5 cents/kg level indicates that buyers have not yet lost control, although the market is entering increasingly elevated territory where volatility and profit-taking risks need to be monitored.
Market attention will now focus on whether SICOM can hold 255 cents, followed by whether it can break through 260 cents/kg.
Disclaimer: The technical analysis and price ranges above are estimates based on data available as of September 25, 2026, at 2:26 p.m. WIB. They do not constitute a price certainty or trading recommendation. Actual price movements may change in response to weather, supply, inventories, conditions in China, energy markets, exchange rates and global sentiment.