SICOM-TSR20 Remains Strong at 255.6 Cents: Heading for 260 or Entering Profit-Taking Phase?
MEDAN, October 1, 2026 — Global natural rubber prices entered October with strong momentum. After SICOM-TSR20 posted a sharp gain throughout September and closed around 258.7 US cents per kilogram on September 30, prices remained in elevated territory on Thursday afternoon.
Based on monitoring at 11:45 a.m. WIB, the SICOM-TSR20 November contract stood at 255.6 cents/kg, up 0.8 cents. The level indicates that selling pressure following the late-September surge remains present, but has not yet been strong enough to reverse the upward momentum.
The market is increasingly focused on one question: Can SICOM-TSR20 break above 260 cents/kg, or is the lengthy September rally beginning to enter a profit-taking phase?
September: Nearly 10% Monthly Gain
Looking at the price movement throughout September, the increase was substantial.
On September 1, SICOM-TSR20 stood at 235.1 cents/kg. Prices then moved sharply in both directions, briefly reaching 249.9 cents on September 9 before correcting to 236 cents on September 15 and subsequently rebuilding momentum in the second half of the month.
On September 22, the price stood at 241.7 cents/kg. It then jumped to 249.5 cents a day later, followed by 254 cents on September 24 and 256.2 cents on September 25.
After briefly correcting to 250 cents on September 29, prices surged again to 258.7 cents/kg on September 30.
As a result, SICOM-TSR20 gained approximately 10.0% during September, rising from 235.1 cents at the beginning of the month to 258.7 cents at the end.
Compared with the beginning of the year, when the price stood at 181.7 cents/kg, the increase has reached approximately 42%.
Such a substantial increase explains why the risk of profit-taking becomes greater each time the market approaches the psychologically important 260-cent level.
The Correction Has Not Yet Signaled a Trend Reversal
Thursday's movement provides an interesting picture.
The price stood at 255.6 cents/kg and was still up 0.8 cents. This indicates that although the market is facing profit-taking pressure following the September 30 surge, buyers are still defending levels above 255 cents.
This differs from the correction seen on September 28–29. When prices fell from 256.2 to 250 cents, selling pressure appeared stronger. However, only a day later, the market moved aggressively higher again to 258.7 cents.
Therefore, at this stage it is more appropriate to describe profit-taking as a risk accompanying the uptrend, rather than evidence that the uptrend has already ended.
The market still needs a fresh catalyst to move decisively above 260 cents.
Thailand Flooding Becomes a Supply-Side Concern
One of the factors supporting the supply side is weather conditions in Thailand.
Flooding that has affected Thailand since mid-September has disrupted transportation and industrial activity in several areas. Reuters reported that the flooding affected numerous provinces and disrupted infrastructure and supply chains. On September 30, the Thai government was still warning of the possibility of further rainfall. Reuters report on Thailand flooding
For the rubber market, the issue is not simply the extent of flood damage, but whether rainfall and flooding are disrupting tapping activities, latex collection, raw-material transportation and deliveries to processing plants.
This matters because southern Thailand is one of the country's key rubber-producing regions. On October 1, weather forecasts continued to indicate the potential for thunderstorms across much of Thailand's southern west coast, while other parts of the South also faced the possibility of heavy rainfall.
As a result, flooding and rainfall cannot yet be described as the sole cause of the price surge, but disruptions to production and logistics are providing an additional reason for market participants to maintain a supply-risk premium.
The duration of the disruption will be important. If rainfall persists and genuinely reduces tapping activity, its impact on prices could become more significant. Conversely, if conditions normalize quickly and production and logistics return to normal, the weather premium could diminish.
El Niño Adds to Supply Concerns
Beyond short-term flooding, the market is also paying greater attention to medium-term weather conditions.
In September, NOAA said El Niño was strengthening and estimated a probability of more than 90% for a strong episode during the autumn and winter of 2026–2027. NOAA also put the probability of a historically strong event during October–December at 75%. NOAA ENSO Advisory
For the rubber market, El Niño matters because it can alter weather patterns across producing regions. However, its impact on rubber production cannot be determined solely from the strength of the El Niño index.
The market still needs evidence from the field: whether weather is actually disrupting tapping, whether raw-material deliveries to factories are declining, and whether any supply reduction lasts long enough to materially affect the market.
In other words, El Niño is currently a stronger expectations factor than direct evidence of an actual production decline.
The Most Tangible Factor: Inventories Are Still Falling
In addition to weather, another more concrete factor is inventory.
Data as of September 27 showed China's social natural-rubber inventories at around 1.096 million tonnes, down 13,000 tonnes, or approximately 1.2%, from the previous week. Dark natural-rubber inventories also declined, while Qingdao inventories fell by around 1.7%.
More specifically, natural-rubber inventories in Qingdao stood at approximately 575,200 tonnes on September 27, down 10,100 tonnes, or 1.73%, from the previous period.
The decline in inventories provides tangible support for prices.
This means the current price increase is not being driven solely by weather speculation. There are indications that physical inventories are still being drawn down.
However, the decline in inventories does not necessarily mean that the market is experiencing an extreme shortage of rubber. Market data also suggest that production in some areas is gradually moving toward more normal conditions as weather patterns change.
Raw-Material Prices Remain Firm
At the upstream level, Thai raw-material prices are also providing support to the market.
Market data at the end of September showed Thai latex prices at around 83 baht/kg, while cup lump was around 75.5 baht/kg. Firm raw-material prices provide some downside protection because producers are also operating with relatively high input costs.
Under these conditions, the current supply-side picture can be summarized by three factors: declining inventories, continuing weather risks and relatively high raw-material prices.
Together, these factors provide a degree of support for prices.
But Demand Has Not Provided the Same Level of Support
The main weakness remains on the demand side.
Ahead of China's extended holiday period, downstream industrial activity has generally slowed. Some market analyses indicate that tire production and purchasing activity have been adjusted ahead of the holiday.
This creates an imbalance in the current market: raw-material prices have risen rapidly, while downstream demand has not accelerated at the same pace.
That is one reason why profit-taking could emerge whenever prices rise too quickly.
In other words, the rubber market currently has relatively supportive supply fundamentals, but it has yet to receive equally strong confirmation from the demand side.
So, Is Profit-Taking Returning?
The potential is there, but it was not dominant as of 11:45 a.m. WIB.
The price at 255.6 cents/kg shows that buyers are still holding their ground. As long as prices can maintain the 254–255-cent area, selling pressure cannot yet be considered dominant.
However, after a gain of nearly 10% in one month, it is natural for some market participants to lock in profits.
The key pattern to watch is whether every decline continues to attract buyers.
If so, the market is still displaying a buy-on-dip character, where modest corrections are used as opportunities to re-enter the market.
Conversely, if prices begin to decline without recovering above 255 cents, followed by a break below 252–250 cents, profit-taking could develop into a deeper correction.
Can SICOM-TSR20 Break 260?
From a technical perspective, 260 cents/kg has now become the key psychological and resistance level, following the approach toward 258.7 cents at the end of September.
Based on the price series provided, the levels to watch today are:
First resistance: 258–260 cents/kg
If the price breaks above 260 and manages to hold above that level, the next technical zone would be:
262–265 cents/kg
However, if the price again fails to break through 258–260 and momentum begins to weaken, the:
252–250 cents/kg
area becomes an important support zone.
If 250 fails to hold, the correction could extend toward approximately:
247–245 cents/kg.
With the latest price at 255.6 cents/kg at 11:45 a.m. WIB, the market remains between these zones. Therefore, for the remainder of today's session, 260 is the key confirmation level, while 252–250 is the area that needs to hold to prevent the upward momentum from turning into a broader correction.
Technical Scenarios for Today
Bullish: 258–260 is broken → potential move toward 262–265
Sideways: 253–258 → consolidation before the next directional move
Short-term bearish: 252 is broken → potential decline toward 250, followed by 247–245
Disclaimer: This technical analysis is based on the available price data and does not represent a certainty about market direction. SICOM-TSR20 prices can change rapidly in response to weather, inventories, currency movements, China's market conditions, global economic developments, fund flows and supply-related news.
October Begins With a Big Question: 260 or a Correction?
Fundamentally, the rubber market is entering October with several factors that continue to provide support. Chinese inventories are declining, raw-material prices remain relatively firm, weather conditions in Thailand remain a concern, and the El Niño outlook is increasing attention to supply risks.
However, the rapid price increase throughout September has significantly increased the risk of profit-taking. Downstream demand has also yet to provide an equivalent boost.
Therefore, a break above 260 cents/kg will be an important test of the strength of the current rally.
If 260 is successfully breached and prices remain above that level, the market could have room to move toward 262–265 cents. Conversely, failure to break 260 followed by a decline below 252–250 cents would increase the risk of a correction.
For the North Sumatran rubber market, this development remains important because changes in SICOM-TSR20 prices can influence regional trading sentiment and rubber price formation.
With the price at 255.6 cents/kg at 11:45 a.m. WIB, the market has not yet signaled that the September rally is over. But after a nearly 10% monthly gain, the move toward 260 will become a contest between supportive fundamentals and profit-taking pressure.