SICOM-TSR20 Rebounds to 257.4 Cents: Can It Break Above 260?
MEDAN, October 2, 2026 — Natural rubber prices moved higher again on Friday (October 2), with the November SICOM-TSR20 contract trading at 257.4 US cents per kilogram at 13:05 p.m. WIB, up approximately 2% from the previous level.
The increase indicates that the selling pressure seen on Thursday has not yet been sufficient to change the market's direction. After SICOM-TSR20 closed at around 255.4 cents/kg on October 1, the price moved higher again, approaching the recent high of 258.7 cents/kg reached on September 30.
With the price at this level, market attention is once again focused on the psychological 260-cent/kg level. The target is only about 3.1 cents, or roughly 1.2%, above the current intraday price.
From Correction to Rebound
The movement over the past several trading sessions has shown considerable volatility. SICOM-TSR20 rose from 249.5 cents/kg on September 23 to 254 cents on September 24, followed by 256.2 cents on September 25.
The contract then corrected to 252.4 cents on September 28 and 250 cents on September 29 before surging to 258.7 cents on September 30. On October 1, the price corrected again to 255.4 cents before rebounding to 256.9 cents during today's session.
This pattern indicates that profit-taking remains a risk, but so far the correction has not developed into a trend reversal. Each decline has continued to attract buying interest, allowing prices to move back toward their recent highs.
Therefore, today's movement is more appropriately viewed as a continuation of the rebound following the recent correction, rather than evidence that profit-taking pressure has completely disappeared.
It Is Not Only About Oil Prices
Higher crude oil prices are still providing support for natural rubber. Brent crude in recent trading has been around US$102 per barrel, following a sharp rise driven by renewed concerns over energy supplies and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The relationship with rubber is relatively straightforward. Natural rubber competes with synthetic rubber, which is derived from petroleum-based feedstocks. When oil prices rise, the relative cost of synthetic rubber also increases, providing additional support for natural rubber prices.
However, it would be too simplistic to attribute the current SICOM-TSR20 rally solely to crude oil.
A more direct factor is the physical supply situation. Weather disruptions in Thailand have hampered tapping activity, while the latest weather forecasts continue to indicate the possibility of rain and storms in several parts of southern Thailand in the coming days.
Thailand's Meteorological Department continues to forecast rainfall in the southern region, including the possibility of heavy rain during October 5–7. Such conditions can reduce the number of suitable tapping days and disrupt the collection of raw material at the plantation level.
In other words, the market is currently facing a combination of disrupted physical supply, relatively high raw-material prices and additional support from the energy market.
Indonesia and Malaysia Also Contribute to the Supply Story
Supply concerns are not limited to Thailand.
The latest ANRPC report indicates that global natural rubber production in 2026 is now expected to be around 15.039 million tonnes, representing only about 0.6% growth from the previous year. Indonesia's production is projected to decline by around 8%, while Malaysia is expected to fall by 10.9% and Vietnam by 4.2%.
These figures are important because they indicate that the current price increase is not simply a reaction to flooding or weather problems in Thailand. There is a broader issue involving limited growth in global supply.
ANRPC also estimates that global production in August declined by approximately 4.5% year-on-year to 1.396 million tonnes.
At the same time, global natural rubber consumption is not growing aggressively. ANRPC estimates that 2026 consumption will increase by only around 0.4% to 15.356 million tonnes. However, even modest demand growth is taking place while supply is facing multiple disruptions.
Qingdao Inventories Continue to Provide Support
Another factor being closely watched by the market is natural rubber inventory in Qingdao, China.
The latest data show total natural rubber inventories in Qingdao at approximately 575,200 tonnes as of September 27, down 1.73% from the previous week.
A decline in inventories means that available stocks at one of China's major trading and storage hubs are continuing to fall. This provides additional support for prices because the physical market has not yet returned to a situation of abundant availability.
However, the demand side also needs to be considered.
China is currently entering the National Day holiday, or Golden Week, from October 1–7. Industrial activity and raw-material purchasing may change during this period. Therefore, a rapid price increase could still face a pause or profit-taking if physical buying does not immediately keep pace with futures prices.
Demand Is Not Yet the Main Driver
This is one reason why the current rally needs to be viewed carefully.
Natural rubber demand remains relatively healthy, particularly from the tire and automotive industries. ANRPC notes that electric-vehicle-related demand is also providing support, particularly in China and India.
However, global demand growth is not large enough to be described as an exceptional demand surge.
As a result, the current price structure appears to be driven primarily by supply concerns and production risks, while demand is acting more as a stabilizing factor that prevents prices from falling too deeply.
This also helps explain why prices can rise relatively quickly even though the Chinese market is entering a long holiday period.
Will Profit-Taking Return?
The risk remains.
SICOM-TSR20 prices have risen significantly compared with the beginning of the year. From 181.7 cents/kg on January 2 to 256.9 cents/kg at midday on October 2, the contract has gained approximately 41% year-to-date.
Such a substantial increase gives some market participants an incentive to lock in profits, particularly as prices approach the psychological 260-cent/kg level.
Therefore, the 258–260 cents/kg area is an important zone to watch. If prices fail to break through this area and begin falling back below 255 cents, profit-taking pressure could intensify again.
Conversely, if prices move above 260 cents/kg and remain there, the technical signal would indicate that selling pressure around that level is beginning to be absorbed.
When Could SICOM-TSR20 Break Above 260?
At 256.9 cents/kg, the distance to 260 is relatively small.
From a simple technical perspective, 258.7 cents/kg is the nearest resistance because it represents the September 30 high. If this level is decisively breached, the probability of the market testing 260 cents/kg would increase.
Three scenarios should be monitored today:
Scenario 1 — Bullish:
The price breaks above 258.7 and subsequently holds above 259–260 cents/kg. If this occurs, the 260 level could shift from resistance toward the next testing area. Further movement toward 262–265 cents/kg could then become possible, although this would require confirmation that volume and buying interest are supporting the move.
Scenario 2 — Consolidation:
The price stalls around 257–259 cents/kg and moves sideways. This could actually represent a healthy consolidation after the sharp increase, allowing the market to absorb profit-taking before making another attempt higher.
Scenario 3 — Profit-taking:
The price fails to break through 258–260 cents/kg and falls below 255 cents/kg. If selling pressure continues, the 252–250 cents/kg area would become an important zone to monitor.
Based on current conditions, 260 cents/kg could be tested in the near term, and the test could even occur during today's session if momentum remains strong. However, breaking above 260 and holding above it is a different matter. The market would need to demonstrate that the move is not driven solely by short-term speculative buying.
Today's Trading Outlook
Based on the combination of price action, the position relative to the recent high and current fundamentals, the following SICOM-TSR20 levels can be monitored today:
Support: 255–254 cents/kg
Next support: 252–250 cents/kg
Resistance: 258.7–260 cents/kg
If breakout occurs: 262–265 cents/kg
As long as prices remain above 255 cents/kg, the short-term structure remains relatively strong. However, a break below 255 would warrant caution because the market could re-enter a profit-taking phase.
For now, 260 cents/kg is better viewed as a key test level rather than a guaranteed target.
Fundamentals Remain Supportive, but Volatility Is High
Overall, the natural rubber market is currently in a relatively unusual situation. Supply is facing weather-related disruptions and limited global production growth, while Qingdao inventories continue to decline.
Higher crude oil prices provide additional support by increasing the cost of synthetic rubber. On the other hand, demand has not experienced a major surge, and the Chinese holiday period could temporarily reduce short-term purchasing activity.
This means that the foundation for higher prices remains in place, but the possibility of a correction is still significant.
If tapping disruptions in Thailand continue, production from major producing countries remains constrained and Chinese inventories continue to decline, the likelihood of prices maintaining elevated levels will increase. Conversely, if weather conditions improve, tapping activity returns to normal and industrial buying weakens after the holiday period, the market could experience renewed profit-taking.
With the price at 256.9 cents/kg at midday, the market's focus is no longer simply whether SICOM-TSR20 can hold above 250 cents. The key question now is whether the 260-cent/kg level can be broken and sustained.
Disclaimer: The technical analysis above is based on price data available as of 12:03 p.m. WIB and should not be interpreted as a certainty regarding future price direction. Intraday prices can change rapidly in response to weather, crude oil prices, exchange rates, the Chinese market, speculative positioning and geopolitical developments.